Playing the waivers and making good trades during the season is where championships are won and lost. Until then, preparing for your fantasy baseball draft is the best way to gain an edge on your opponents, and within the draft, the best edge you can get is by drafting undervalued players.
With more readily available statistics and information than ever before, it’s becoming more difficult to find values, but that’s where this article comes in. These are the top 10 guys that I think will outperform their average draft position (ADP) by the end of the year.
Ketel Marte: Rank: 25 | ADP: 40
Marte hit less than 15 home runs and exactly a .260 average in both 2017 and 2018, in 2019 however, he was the best second baseman and 14th best hitter in roto while missing some games. He leaped to a remarkable level, comparable to only the best in the league: a 32 home runs and a .329 average. Even though that’s unsustainable, his statcast numbers prove that this wasn’t a complete fluke. He ranked above the 85th percentile in expected weighted on base percentage (xwOBA), expected slugging (xSLG), strikeout rate (K%), whiff rate (whiff%) and ranked in the 94th percentile in expected batting average (xBA). Also, Marte is really fast so with the Diamondback’s now looking like playoff contenders in a shortened season, there’s a chance that they are more willing to run than in years past. By no means do I think that Marte will maintain his stat line from 2019, but I think that he can very reasonably hit for a 30 home run, 10 steal pace and at least a .300 average, a similar line to Anthony Rendon (20 ADP), but with a much higher steal potential.
Ken Giles: Rank: 85 | ADP: 116
Saves are scarce, but you need them at some point. Most of the reliable guys are going within the first 100 picks, leaving those who wait on saves with someone like Edwin Diaz or Brandon Workman. Giles however, will provide consistent saves and great ratios at little cost. Some seasons, Giles’ ERA has exceeded 4.00, but the highest his fielding independent pitching (FIP) has ever been is 3.08. 2019 was one of Giles’ best years having ranked in the 98th percentile in xwOBA, 96th in xBA, 95th in xSLG, 99th in K% and 99th in whiff%. It’s pretty clear that Giles is “the guy” in Toronto and no one should take over the closer role as long as he continues performing. With great ratios and strikeouts, there are only two possible knocks on Giles: the Blue Jays may not win many games and he could be traded. Just last season, Kirby Yates showed that the saves leader can be on a 70 win team and lead the league in saves, even still, I expect the Blue Jays to be better than the Padres were last year. Since I think the Blue Jays will be good, they won’t want to trade him so he should have Toronto’s closing job on lockdown. For some reason, Giles is being drafted much later than other top relievers, but he has just as much, if not more, job security than them, but most importantly, he’s a great pitcher.
Nick Castellanos: Rank: 54 | ADP: 87
For his entire career, it’s been somewhat clear that Comerica Park was at least slightly holding back Castellanos’ numbers. That was never more clear than when he got traded to the Cubs and got the opportunity to play in Wrigley. Some may say that that was a random hot streak, but since his initial breakout in 2016, Castellanos has been in the 90th percentile of xSLG every year and the 99th percentile in 2016. With the Cubs, Castellanos was on pace for 67 doubles, 51 home runs, a .321 average, 137 runs, 115 RBI and a 1.002 OPS. Castellanos had a .347 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) so none of this is completely sustainable, but similar to Ketel Marte, Castellanos’ statcast metrics state that he should still be good. Even if you doubt the statcast numbers though, Great American Ballpark is an extreme hitter’s park so a power surge from Castellanos is likely. There was a viral Tweet this offseason that showed an overlay of Castellanos’ hits in 2019 with Great American Ballpark, showing that he could’ve had about 60 home runs. Even in Comerica Park, Castellanos has shown that he can be a solid contributor in at least batting average, but now in one of the best hitters’ parks, he should see a power increase. Also in a great lineup, Castellanos could contend for the league lead in RBI and in a shortened season, if he gets hot like he did last year, he could contend for the triple crown.
Keston Hiura: Rank: 35 | ADP: 49
Excluding his time in Double-A, every season in the minors, Hiura had an average above .320, but also an unsustainable BABIP of at least .380. Before being called up in 2019, he was a good prospect, but he was expected to regress a lot like any other call-up with an extreme BABIP would. In the majors though, his BABIP reached .400 and he hit for a .303 average. Despite the fact that he profiles as a high BABIP player, no matter who you are, .400 indicates massive regression. I project Hiura for about a .275 average, but given his potential to be a great contributor in power and speed, he’s being extremely undervalued. In 2019, Hiura placed in the 97th percentile for hard hit rate and was among the best in exit velocity, xSLG and barrel rate. With all this upside also comes lots of downside though: he achieved a horrendous 30.7% K%, placing him in the 4th percentile and 3rd percentile in whiff%. This entire excerpt was mainly projecting regression for Hiura, so you may be wondering why I have him as my fourth target: it’s because his regression’s being way too heavily weighted. The fact is that if he didn’t project to regress, he’d be going off the board in the first or second round, but instead, his regression’s being overcompensated and he’s going in the fourth. Hitting for a .300, 40 home run and 20 steal pace is not something that just anybody can do, so yes: Hiura’s BABIP will regress toward the league average, but he still has the skills to perform at a very high level. 2020 is Hiura’s sophomore season, so maybe what he loses to regression can be made up for in growth. I think Hiura will have a higher batted ball rate, meaning a lower K% and normalized BABIP, but still, he’s a virtual lock for a 30 home run, .260 average and 15 steal pace while having the potential to be a first round pick in 2021.
Nelson Cruz: Rank: 41 | ADP: 81
Typically if a batter hits 37 or more home runs in six straight seasons, they’ll definitely go off the board in the first five rounds. If you add in an average consistently hovering at .280 then he’ll probably go in about the third at the very least. Now imagine this hypothetical player has hit for above 180 runs plus RBI in six straight seasons and now he’s on one of the best lineups in all of baseball. So now I ask: why is Nelson Cruz’s ADP at 81? He’s an old designated hitter, but that’s not worth a 70 pick discount off of guys that will put up similar stats in Nolan Arenado and Alex Bregman. In addition to being one of the best batters of the past half decade, his statcast numbers are also phenomenal: he led the league in barrels per plate appearance and was top three in average exit velocity, fly balls per ground ball and hard hit rate. Furthermore, he placed in the 98th percentile in xwOBA, 94th in xBA and 100th in xSLG. Even though he’s now 40 years old, until he shows his age, there’s no reason for him to be downgraded more than just a few spots. His position eligibility is a problem, but at the very least, Cruz should be going near where Yordan Alvarez was before his IL stint, not 45 picks later.
Marcell Ozuna: Rank: 59 | ADP: 100
The only reason to like Ozuna is his expected stats, but that’s one hell of a good reason. According to his expected stats, Ozuna underperformed more than anyone else in 2019. He had a -.047 BA, xBA differential, -.076 SLG, xSLG differential and a -.046 wOBA, xwOBA differential, placing him in first, third and first, respectively. In 2017 Ozuna showed his upside with 37 home runs and a .312 average, but he had a .355 BABIP; in 2019, he had 29 home runs and a .241 average, but a .257 BABIP. Taking his expected stats, BABIP and real stats into account, Ozuna should finish somewhere close to the mean of his 2017 and 2019. The most likely outcome is about a .280 average, 30 home runs and about 180 runs plus RBI in an elite Braves lineup. As a solid contributor in every category but steals, at pick 100, why not take the bet on his contact quality? If he underperforms for a third straight year, so what: It’s only an eighth round pick, but ever since his breakout in 2017, he’s shown that he has the ability to have Austin Meadows-esk numbers.
Sonny Gray: Rank: 75 | ADP: 94
After Gray’s hiatus from acedom with the Yankees, he picked up right where he left off in Cincinnati. Sometimes when a player switches teams, it’s simply a checkpoint in their splits and doesn’t actually change much: the opposite is true for Gray. In 2019, his first year with the Reds, Gray was better than ever been before. In the first half, he was certainly a quality pitcher: 90 innings pitched, 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 103 strikeouts. Since Gray produces weak contact and is such a ground ball pitcher, he profiles as having a low BABIP (which for pitchers usually indicates that they overperformed), because of this, his .289 BABIP in the first half suggests that his stats accurately represent how well he pitched. In the second half however, he was even better. In 85 innings, Gray accumulated a 2.12 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 102 strikeouts, but the kicker is he had a .215 BABIP. Regardless of how good you are at forcing weak contact, a .215 BABIP is unsustainable over a long period of time. Similar to Hiura, I expect Gray to regress, but not as much as his ADP of 94 is accounting for. For 2020, I think the most likely outcome is that he performs similarly to his first half stats, making him about a fifth or sixth round value. Additionally, his second half showed that he can be one of the best pitchers in the game. The combination of stability and upside that Gray showed last year should make him at least a top 70 pick, but for some reason, he’s going 20 picks later.
Lucas Giolito : Rank: 44 | ADP: 52
Lucas Giolito decided to take a one year break from being awesome, no one knows why, it just happened. Prior to joining the White Sox’ major league roster in 2017, he was a top prospect with a consistently great ERA and good K%. In his White Sox debut in 2017, Giolito threw 45 innings for a 2.38 ERA. Nobody thought this was sustainable due to his .189 BABIP, but there was certainly upside for the upcoming season. He was a top prospect and was immediately successful in the majors, whether it was luck or not, it still looked like he had a bright future… but then 2018 happened. Giolito’s 2018 is one of the worst prolonged pitching performances of the past decade: 173 innings pitched, 6.13 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, only a 16.1% K% and worst of all his .268 BABIP suggests that it should’ve been worse. Just when all hope was lost for Giolito, he bounced back to his minor league form. He threw 176 innings for a 3.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 32.3% K% and best of all he didn’t overperform that much. With a 3.43 FIP, .273 BABIP and placing in the top 20 percentiles in all of xERA, xBA, xwOBA and whiff%, Giolito seems mostly legit. After only one year, there’s certainly some doubt as to whether or not his 2019 can be replicable, but combined with his prospect pedigree, I think it is. Even if he can’t live up to his 2019 though, he’ll still be usable: only a few guys can throw 3 complete games and contend for a Cy Young, and Giolito’s one of them.
Eddie Rosario: Rank: 62 | ADP: 89
Before my podcast with Ariel Cohen, I could’ve cared less about Rosario: he just accumulates stats and nothing else, but that’s exactly why he’s so great. Rosario has struggled with flukey injuries almost every season, but he places near the top in per game stats every season. Now in a shortened season, if he can manage to avoid flukey injuries for just 60 games, there’s nothing holding him back from accumulating stats at an elite pace. In 2019, Rosario started 132 games and hit 32 home runs, a .276 average and 200 runs plus RBI, and that was with a .273 BABIP. Prior to 2019, Rosario’s BABIP was usually around .320 so in 2020, I expect his batting average to dramatically improve. There’s nothing about him that suggests that he’s more likely to get injured than an average outfielder so as a good contributor in home runs and average and one of the best in runs and RBI, there’s not much of a case against Rosario going at pick 89.
Patrick Corbin: : Rank: 29 | ADP: 36
A lot of proven aces go off the board within the first three rounds and many guys with potential go from rounds 4-10. Corbin is a proven ace but is going closer to the unproven pitchers. In two straight seasons, he has shown that he can maintain a good ERA and WHIP while contending for the most strikeouts in the league: the only other guys this applies to are Gerritt Cole, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and Walker Buehler who are all going within the first 16 picks. By no means is Corbin as elite as any of these guys, but you’re getting a 20 pick discount on him. His statcast numbers don’t look as good as my other nine targets or guys that I typically target in drafts, but he’s over two seasons, he’s shown that he’s good enough for his statcast numbers to be ignored. Furthermore, even though his surface statcast numbers aren’t great, Corbin hoists a diverse pitch mix as well as one of the best pitches in the game in his slider. In 2018 and 2019, Corbin’s slider was so great that if you take the worse of the two seasons, the pitch had a .158 batting average, .266 SLG, .202 wOBA and an unthinkable 52% whiff%. Corbin’s value is that he’s shown that he can be an ace while going close to guys who are less proven and riskier than Corbin himself.
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