My top priority in fantasy drafts is to target talent, not situation. Whereas player skill remains at least somewhat static, a situation is ever-changing and extremely difficult to predict. Unfortunately, it’s usually tough to identify established talent after pick 200, but there is one player that stands out.
Sterling Shepard is an extremely skilled wide receiver. His routes are fluid, he understands how to get open, and he has fantastic hands (0% drop rate in 2020). However, there are certainly obstacles in his path to fantasy success, namely injuries and Daniel Jones.
In the clip above, Shepard identifies the zone coverage and not only manages to beat it but also gets to a spot that creates an easy throw for his quarterback. He’s able to do this with attentive footwork, as displayed in the cut at the top of his route. Shepard is not a speed threat, but he has incredibly thoughtful changes of direction which allows him to consistently get open. This, in turn, occasionally opens up downfield targets.
Though not his forte, Shepard isn’t a slouch against man coverage either. Against the Eagles, he’s able to immediately beat the press coverage and then read the corner’s leverage and use it to his advantage. He predicts that the corner is expecting a curl, as that’s where Shepard makes his hay. He fakes the curl, fools the defender, and then goes deep with a nice window for the ball to be placed.
In both of the previous plays, Shepard lines up in the slot which profiles as his most effective position. In 2018, Shepard worked from the slot on 55% of his snaps, but in 2019, that significantly dropped when Golden Tate came to town. In 2020, his usage in the slot did go up from 2019, but only to 24% of his snaps. Ideally, that number sits as high as possible, and now with Kenny Golladay manning the outside, about 50% is a realistic expectation which would remarkably boost his production.
In addition to his physical limitations, there are other noteworthy concerns regarding Shepard’s situation.
Until he proves otherwise, it’s safe to assume that Daniel Jones is not a good quarterback. Still, with Saquon Barkley returning and Kenny Golladay joining the Giants, the offense does project to be more functional than it was in 2020. This benefits Shepard as a short play artist who will have lots of room to work.
More concerning than Jones, though, is Shepard’s health. Shepard stands at 5-feet-10-inches. Though he excels in the middle of the field, his body doesn’t necessarily like the implied beating it receives. Shepard is prone to concussions and has consistently struggled with other injuries. However, taking his skill and draft price into account, the injuries are something that fantasy managers will simply have to deal with.
His short field style fosters a safe and consistent fantasy output that not many players in Shepard’s draft range can boast. On the other hand, as with any sleeper, Shepard does have several drawbacks. The reason to draft Shepard is to fill a spot in your starting lineup. Whether it be risky players in your starting lineup or fear of bye weeks and injuries, Shepard is an adequate filler any given week.