In his first two seasons in Sean McVay’s premier offense, Todd Gurley was the best fantasy back since Ladanian Tomlinson. He seemed unstoppable until the 2018 playoffs when his snap count decreased from 64.5 to 40 snaps per game.
2019 was the first year for the fantasy community to monitor Gurley while knowing about his arthritis. He didn’t miss any games because of his knee, but his workload was slightly limited. He averaged 14.9 carries per game compared to at least 17 in the four prior seasons; he also saw a drop in receptions per game to 2.1 from 4.3 and 4.2 in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
So far, these stats don’t paint a pretty picture, but with a change of scenery, Gurley’s workload will increase, and he’ll be more efficient with his touches. In 2019, on tape, Gurley looked terrific, maybe not as good as his outstanding 2017 and 2018, but that’s not replicable. In Atlanta, Gurley will have a Le’Veon Bell-like-workload to secure him as an RB2, with the potential to finish as the number one fantasy player.
Gurley’s poor production in 2019 was not his fault. Even with his injury, Gurley still faced 8+ men stacked in the box on 24.22% of his rushes, placing him 15th of all qualified players and fifth of players with at least 200 rushes.
The Rams scheme heavily relies on the ground game cleaning the pocket for Jared Goff to thrive. Starting with the Patriots in the Super Bowl, teams found that stacking the box will harness Gurley’s efficiency and help pressure Goff. Last season, to combat this and take pressure off of his quarterback, McVay implemented an absurd amount of play-action, forcing Goff to lead the league in play-action attempts and yards.
Aside from a counter to the Rams scheme being discovered, their O-line suffered a significant setback. In Gurley’s MVP caliber seasons, the O-line was elite, but in 2019 according to Football Outsiders, they ranked 26th in stuffed runs and were the 19th best O-line. By no means are these acceptable stats, especially for a system that relies on a great O-line, but the tape was even worse. According to PFF, only the Dolphins’ line was worse.
Following 2018, when the Rams lined up in 11 personnel at a record-setting rate of 92.3%, in 2019, their O-line was so bad, they were forced to shift to 12 personnel. After their bye in week 9, what used to be one of the league’s most prolific passing offenses was now in 12 personnel for third most of all teams.
It’s easy to overlook the O-line’s impact on an offense, but in a case such as the Rams, a horrific offensive line led to their demise. Since they couldn’t have as many wide receivers on the field, their passing game wasn’t as dynamic, allowing the opposition to stack the box without repercussions.
Compared to the Rams, in 2019, the Falcons’ O-line wasn’t much better, but Matt Ryan’s a lot more comfortable under pressure than Goff, which will translate into a better offense and more running room for Gurley. Gurley will have an opportunity to prove his talent in what profiles to be a better offense than the 2019 Rams.
In 2019, Gurley averaged 52.5 snaps per game, but now that he’s under contract for only a year, there’s no need for Atlanta to maintain his health like the Rams did so his snaps should increase. Additionally, the Falcons have no other running backs to steal touches from Gurley.
For fantasy players, now is your chance to draft Gurley. He’s going in the sixth round and is at least a lock for volume. Gurley’s 2019 tape proved that he hasn’t lost a step, so he’ll at least be somewhat efficient with his touches, with the potential to return to his MVP form if everything goes right. The worst-case scenario is 2019’s numbers, which is not bad for a sixth-round pick, but he also has RB1 upside.