This year, more than ever, a team’s record will rely on their depth. Once the season’s over, a theme will persist amongst all the teams with good records: either they had good depth or didn’t get hit with a COVID outbreak.
Along with the minuscule sample size, this year, a team will rely on luck more than ever before. We’ve already seen with several teams that if a team gets hit with an outbreak, a couple of starters will be knocked out along with a lot of bench players.
Whatever happens, I guarantee that this season’s results will be different than what anyone can imagine right now, but here’s my shot at predicting the unpredictable.
AMERICAN LEAUGE
East
New York Yankees: The Yankees have one of the best lineups and bullpens, it’s just a matter of staying healthy. For some reason, they keep getting injured, but last year they showed that they have the depth necessary to still win the division.
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have made a name for themselves for finding needles in the haystack. In addition to building a good lineup, rotation and bullpen, my trust in the Rays applies to their depth as well. I trust that their front office has gathered the best bench talent possible, making them scary for the depth-reliant 2020 season.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox have begun their fall from glory. Their lineup is still great, but shallow, their ace is Eduardo Rodriguez and other than Brandon Workman, their bullpen is horrible. If a few of their stud bats get sick, what’s the real difference between this team and the Blue Jays?
Toronto Blue Jays: This probably won’t be their year, but the Blue Jays are starting to rise to playoff contention. Their core of batters is really young and their pitching is heading in the right direction. The Blue Jays could very well finish above the Red Sox this year, but in a few years, they could finish above all four of their division rivals.
Baltimore Orioles: Even in a season where teams that we think are bad could end up winning the division, I don’t see any situation in which the Orioles don’t finish last in their division.
Central
Minnesota Twins: Following a record setting season for team home runs, can the Bomba Squad continue mashing? I think so and even if some of them get sick, they have amazing depth. Also if their offense does significantly regress, with the additions of Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill their starting rotation should be a lot better than it was in their 100 win 2019. Also featuring one of the best bullpens in the game, I don’t see anything holding the Twins back.
Cleveland: The offense in Cleveland is interesting. Other than Fransisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, they have a few intriguing pieces, but a factor in making someone “intriguing” is massive downside. They still have one of the pitching staffs, but if everything goes wrong in Cleveland, they could very plausibly finish below the Royals.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox finally started making a push for the playoffs in the off season, but since they just started accumulating talent, their depth is still very shallow. If they manage to stay healthy, the White Sox could make the playoffs, but the odds are not in their favor. Like the Blue Jays, this isn’t the White Sox year, but sometime soon, they could be seen as the division favorites.
Kansas City Royals: I like the Royals this year. If the White Sox hadn’t made so many good moves this off season, I’d have the Royals finishing ahead of them, but they still don’t have much of anything at pitching or on their bench which will really hurt them this year.
Detroit Tigers: No.
West
Houston Astros: Regardless of when the Astros were cheating, I don’t think that stopping will really make them perform noticeably worse. Pitchers will throw at them and there will be a lot of drama, but this team is still loaded with talent, even on their bench.
Oakland Athletics: Like the Rays, I simply trust Oakland to find needles in the haystack and have good depth even if it doesn’t seem like they do right now. Their lineup looks great but their rotation looks kind of gross. Like normal, as the season is coming to an end, I think they’ll be in the hunt.
Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout could miss a lot of games which is really concerning, but the Angels finally made some improvements on pitching and their supporting cast. When Trout’s in the lineup, this team is pretty good, when he’s out though, they might be below average. LA is an attractive spot for free agents so as long as they continue adding to this core, within a few years, they could win the division.
Texas Rangers: I think the Rangers will have more wins than what the general consensus expects, but it won’t be quite enough for them to make the playoffs. If all goes right, their pitching staff could be one of the best, but if all goes wrong, it could be one of the worst. Overall, their depth is bad and they’re very volatile. Like a lot of teams, this isn’t their year, but they should rise to contention in the near future.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners just started a rebuild and everything about their team is bad. There’s no better way to put it.
NATIONAL LEAUGE
East
Atlanta Braves: The Braves have undergone one of the most successful rebuilds in recent memory and now hoist one of the best lineups and a high upside pitching staff. Next year, we could be looking at them as the best in the league.
Philadelphia Phillies: Last year I had the Phillies winning the World Series, even though that didn’t go as planned, they’re due for a bounce back. They still have one of the best lineups and their rotation is adequate. Their bullpen is bad, but there’s a real possibility that they finish first in runs scored.
New York Mets: Like the Twins last year, the Mets have quietly been gathering talent all over the field. Combined with their homegrown talent, the Mets have a deep lineup. With the loss of Noah Syndergaard though, their rotation isn’t great, but their bullpen is.
Washington Nationals: The Nationals were not the best team in baseball last year, probably not even top seven. They still have one of the best rotations but now that Rendon’s gone, they only have two good batters. In the best division in baseball, you need a lot more than just two good bats to finish near the top.
Miami Marlins: They’re still not good, but the Marlins are no longer even close to the worst team in baseball. It’s easy to see how they can be good in a few years, but even this year, playing against them might not be the cakewalk that it once was.
Central
Cincinnati Reds: Even when we thought the season would start like normal, I still thought the Reds had a good chance at winning their division, now I see them as a virtual lock. A DH allows an extra spot in the lineup for what was a crowded outfield, a regional schedule helps them in terms of strength of schedule and they have good depth. I see no holes in this Reds team and think they could make a run in the playoffs.
St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals’ roster looks like it does at the beginning of every season: a list of nobodies. The thing is the Cardinals do this thing that by the end of the season, that list of nobodies becomes a deep list of somebodies. There’s no factual proof suggesting that the Cardinals should be ranked ahead of the Brewers and Cubs, it’s really just that they’ve shown that they’re able to figure it out, and I trust that they can do it once again.
Milwaukee Brewers: Like the Nationals, the Brewers only have two good hitters, but unlike the Nationals, their rotation is trash. I have little confidence that their rotation will have much of an impact, but maybe in a shortened season, they’ll be able to heavily utilize their magnificent bullpen.
Chicago Cubs: Ever since their World Series win, the Cubs have been slowly dissolving. Now, they’re a lineup full of good, but not great, hitters and barely serviceable pitchers. On what can only be described as an okay lineup, nothing stands out as an edge over their division rivals.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates standout amongst the other rebuilding teams because they still have some really interesting pieces in Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Joe Musgrove, Mitch Keller and Keone Kela. With that said, they are still a rebuilding team.
West
Los Angeles Dodgers: Other than the Yankees, the Dodgers are the obvious favorites to win it all, and for good reason. They’ve represented the National League in the World Series in two of the last three Octobers. Now they’ve added one of the best batters and have revamped their roster with fresh weapons from their farm system.
San Diego Padres: After what seemed like a milenia of building a farm system, the Padres are finally making a push for the playoffs. At this point, they’re above average in hitting, starting rotation, bullpen and depth. This probably won’t be their year, but in these coming years, we’ll see if Padres fans can finally be happy again.
Arizona Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks are one of the sneakiest teams in the league: they’re just good at everything. There’s nothing exciting about them, they just have the makeup needed to get a lot of wins. Almost regardless of what happens, due to their depth and history of consistency, they have great odds to finish with a winning record. With that said, if they find a way to sneak into the playoffs, they don’t have the makeup to make it very far.
Colorado Rockies: Once again, the Rockies have an upper-enchalant offense, but their rotation and bullpen is one of the worst. It’s difficult to tell how much of this should be attributed to Coors, but even in away games, their stats remain somewhat static. As long as the Rockies’ pitching is so bad, they don’t have much hope to make the playoffs.
San Francisco Giants: How in the world did the Giants finish with 77 wins in 2019?
AWARDS
American League
Most Valuable Player: Nelson Cruz
My initial thoughts for AL MVP were Alex Bregman and George Springer but there’s no way that any Astro will be rewarded anytime soon. Cruz’ odds are decreased because he’s strictly a DH, but he has shown time and time again that he’s one of the best hitters of all time, and in 2020, he’ll finally get recognized with one of the highest honors. Cruz will hit 21 home runs, .311 average and 46 RBI, nearly leading the AL in all categories.
Cy Young: Mike Clevinger
When Clevinger’s healthy, he’s one of the best in the game. In almost any scenario, as long as Clevinger doesn’t get hurt, he’ll at least get Cy Young votes, it’s just a matter of how many. The season being shortened lessens the likelihood of Clevinger getting hurt so as long as he performs like he has since 2017, he’ll be an unquestionable ace. With 74 innings pitched, 98 strikeouts, a 2.43 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, Clevinger will go deep into games while maintaining elite efficiency.
Rookie of the Year: Luis Robert
Unless Nate Pearson gets called up, I don’t see how anyone else can outperform Robert. He’s a plus on defense and the basepaths and if he can quickly adjust to the majors, he’ll be a great hitter as well. Even if he hits 5 home runs and a .260 average, I don’t see how any other AL rookie can outperform him. I think Robert will hit 8 home runs for a decent .268 average and 6 stolen bases, but mainly show potential for the future.
Manager of the Year: Kevin Cash
The Rays never have any players that stand out as some of the best in the league, but they always find a way to compete in a really tough division. A lot of kudos go to their amazing front office for building a deep and underrated team, but Cash will be named Manager of the Year to recognize the Rays’ success.
National League
Most Valuable Player: Nicholas Casatellanos
Moving from one of the worst ballparks for his profile to one of the best, Castellanos will experience a major power surge in Cincinnati. There’s no doubt that he’ll hit for average and some power, but unlike in years past, Castellanos will be among the best in home runs, runs and RBI. Castellanos will smash expectations with 16 home runs, a .304 average, 40 runs and 43 RBI.
Cy Young: Chris Paddack
The biggest knock on Paddack is the potential of an innings limit; in a 60 game though, I think the Padres would be smart to let Paddack do as much damage as he can. There’s no question as to whether or not Paddack’s good, really just if he can pitch enough innings. I think Paddack will pitch 72 innings for 89 strikeouts, a 2.38 ERA and a .94 WHIP.
Rookie of the Year: Mitch Keller
In 2019, Keller had a 7.13 ERA… that’s bad. However, there are statistically backed theories that former Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage was not using his pitchers correctly. In terms of stuff and talent, Keller’s among the best, he just needs to use it right. In 2019, his slider’s average velocity was 95.4, his slider got a 47.8% whiff rate and his curveball got a 34% whiff rate. These numbers are comparable to only the best in the game, so if Keller can be unlocked by new pitching coach Oscar Marin, he could be an ace. In 68 innings I think Keller strikes out 65 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.
Manager of the Year: Brian Snitker
The first qualification for winning Manager of the Year is having a winning team, Snitker gets a check there. Snitker has talked about managing his pitching in an unorthodox way, so at the end of the season when the Braves have about 40 wins, a lot of their success will be attributed to Snitker and his unique coaching style for a shortened season.
PLAYOFFS
Wildcard
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays: A battle between two of the most intellectually run and intricately built teams in the game will be a doozy. The only thing separating these two teams is pitching, and the Rays have an advantage. Maybe if Jesus Luzardo can break out, he can start the Wildcard game for the Athletics but on the mound for the Rays will either be Blake Snell or Charlie Morton, two of the best in the game. Even if Luzardo does become a superstar, the Rays also have the much better bullpen.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies have one of the best offenses in the game and the Mets have some of the best depth and one of the best bullpens. In a year when every team’s expected to get beaten up by COVID, the Mets’ depth will help them maintain a roster similar to what they had at the beginning of the season.
Division Series
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins: The Rays may have one of the best bullpens in the league to accompany a solid lineup and rotation, but the Twins have one of the best lineups to accompany a solid rotation and bullpen. In the end, the Twins’ offense outweighs the Rays’ pitching to get them the win.
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros: Two of the best teams in the league see themselves pinned up against each other in a matchup that could be a ticket to a World Series win. They both have amazing offenses and bullpens, but the Astros gain a major edge in their starting rotation. Lance McCullers, Josh James and Jose Urquidy are breakout candidates. Even if all goes wrong, Houston still has the reliable Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke.
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers: It’s usually pretty hard to pick the winner of playoff matchups: that’s not the case here. The Dodgers feature a deadly combination of superstars and depth. For years, the Dodgers have been one of the best teams and now they’ve added one of the best batters in the league. The more important aspect of the Dodgers for their team’s success is their depth. The Dodgers are one of the deepest teams, almost anywhere that they lose a starter, their backup is still above league average.
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves: The Reds and Braves are really similar. They both have offenses that will surely produce, good depth and a starting rotation with lots of potential, the one difference is their bullpen. The Braves have one of the best bullpens in the game whereas the Reds’ is a question mark.
Conference Series
Houston Astros @ Minnesota Twins: Either of these teams have exactly what it takes to make it to and win a World Series. Until this point, I haven’t accounted for the Astros’ cheating scandal, but as a tiebreaker between two equally great teams, I think the media could get on the Astros’ nerves when they’re just a few wins from another World Series. If we actually do see this matchup, it could really go either way, but the Twins are great and the Astros have some question marks, thus placing the Twins in the championship.
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are the most well-built team in the league. As if I haven’t stressed it enough, they have no weak spots: a star studded lineup, an amazing rotation, a great bullpen and the best depth in the league. The Braves are good in all of those departments as well, but when compared to the Dodgers, it’s not much of a competition. The Dodgers will easily walk by the Braves and advance to the next round.
World Series
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Dodgers: These teams ended up in the World Series for a reason: their depth brought them to the postseason and their stars carried them to the end of it. The Dodgers are the better team in terms of depth, but I figure that if a team makes it to the World Series, their usual starters are healthy or they found a good alternative. Not accounting for depth and only considering their starters, the Twins have a slight advantage over the Dodgers. Like everything else this season, it’s a total toss up but I think the Twins will walk away from 2020 with a World Series win*.